rcCROPARC / CLIMATE REFERENCE
ENSO observations & official outlook
A dated view of Pacific climate evidence: observed relative sea-surface temperature anomalies and NOAA’s separately issued ENSO outlook.
This is a reference edition, not a live status feed. Observation coverage ends 30 September 2026; the included advisory was issued 10 September 2026. Open the dashboard for the latest available evidence.
Recent seasonal observations
| Season | Observation period | RONI (°C) |
|---|---|---|
| JAS 2026 | 1 July 2026–30 September 2026 | 1.69 |
| JJA 2026 | 1 June 2026–31 August 2026 | 1.36 |
| MJJ 2026 | 1 May 2026–31 July 2026 | 0.97 |
| AMJ 2026 | 1 April 2026–30 June 2026 | 0.49 |
| MAM 2026 | 1 March 2026–31 May 2026 | -0.04 |
| FMA 2026 | 1 February 2026–30 April 2026 | -0.44 |
| JFM 2026 | 1 January 2026–31 March 2026 | -0.76 |
| DJF 2026 | 1 December 2025–28 February 2026 | -0.91 |
| NDJ 2025 | 1 November 2025–31 January 2026 | -1.04 |
| OND 2025 | 1 October 2025–31 December 2025 | -0.98 |
| SON 2025 | 1 September 2025–30 November 2025 | -0.93 |
| ASO 2025 | 1 August 2025–31 October 2025 | -0.78 |
Official outlook issued 10 September 2026
These are NOAA probabilities for ENSO phases, not probabilities of local drought or crop loss. Valid periods overlap and may overlap the issue date.
| Valid period | La Niña | Neutral | El Niño |
|---|---|---|---|
| ASO1 August 2026–31 October 2026 | 0% | 0% | 100% |
| SON1 September 2026–30 November 2026 | 0% | 0% | 100% |
| OND1 October 2026–31 December 2026 | 0% | 0% | 100% |
| NDJ1 November 2026–31 January 2027 | 0% | 0% | 100% |
| DJF1 December 2026–28 February 2027 | 0% | 0% | 100% |
| JFM1 January 2027–31 March 2027 | 0% | 0% | 100% |
| FMA1 February 2027–30 April 2027 | 0% | 3% | 97% |
| MAM1 March 2027–31 May 2027 | 0% | 18% | 82% |
| AMJ1 April 2027–30 June 2027 | 2% | 55% | 43% |
NOAA sources & dates
This page contains a dated prepared edition. The dashboard can contain newer evidence; source collection and observation periods are different clocks.
- RONI seasonal observations · retrieved 4 October 2026 · published 3 October 2026
- Official ENSO discussion · retrieved 2 October 2026
- Official ENSO probabilities · retrieved 2 October 2026
Attribution & exact climate edition
NOAA Climate Prediction Center; CropArc normalized presentation. NOAA/NWS public domain; attribution; no endorsement.
NOAA Climate Prediction Center; CropArc normalized presentation. NOAA/NWS public domain; attribution; no endorsement.
NOAA Climate Prediction Center; CropArc normalized presentation. NOAA/NWS public domain; attribution; no endorsement.
c-58aa87a0be5872851d395e25115857bede823a3702dc44ad0bbbf26b08df4d6f