rcCan Japan feed itself?
Imports remain essential to Japan’s current diet and livestock feed.
CropArc interpretation · MAFF national food balances
A reading of MAFF’s retained FY2021–FY2025 food-supply measures, assuming the current food mix and production system. FY2025 figures are approximate.
Calorie self-sufficiency is a share of food supply, not the share of people who would survive. The feed adjustment does not measure dependence on fuel, fertiliser or other inputs. Changing diets, retaining exports or changing land use has not been modelled here. The separate 2020 dietary benchmark has a different method and does not replace MAFF’s feed-adjusted measure.
MAFF · Definitions of food self-sufficiency ↗
Source review: 2026-10-11. The evidence below uses separate methods and reference periods.
In FY2025, Japan’s official measure puts domestic food at 37% of calorie supply after accounting for imported feed. Rice covers 95% of domestic use by weight; wheat covers 16%. Domestic feed supplies 24% in digestible nutrients. These approximate figures describe the current food mix.
- Today’s calorie supply
- Imports remain essential
- Livestock feed
- Mostly imported
- A different domestic diet
- Capacity unproven
How much calorie supply is domestic?
FY2025 · approximateThe same food system, with two ways of counting imported feed.
- Domestic production · before feed adjustment46%
- Self-sufficiency · after feed adjustment37%
Each full track represents 100% of calorie supply. Imported feed accounts for a 9 percentage-point difference between these measures.
What these percentages measure
Both ratios are shares of calorie supply, not shares of the population or daily nutritional requirements. Both account for imported raw materials used in processed foods. Only the self-sufficiency ratio applies the livestock feed adjustment.
Neither is an estimate of what could be produced after changing diets, farmland use or trading arrangements.
Behind the percentages Official quantities · FY2025
Both calorie ratios use 2,237 kcal per person per day of food supply. Domestic calories fall from 1,040 to 830 after the feed adjustment. These are supply accounts, not measured intake or nutritional requirements.
| Measure | Domestic ÷ total | Reported | Unit of quantities |
|---|---|---|---|
| Before feed adjustment | 1,040 ÷ 2,237 | 46% | kcal/person/day |
| After feed adjustment | 830 ÷ 2,237 | 37% | kcal/person/day |
| Domestic feed | 574 ÷ 2,345 | 24% | 10,000 tonnes TDN |
| Wheat by weight | 103.1 ÷ 658.7 | 16% | 10,000 tonnes |
Scroll the table sideways for quantities and units.
Wheat’s denominator includes non-food uses and stock changes. Feed uses digestible nutrients, which differ from the crude protein measure on Denmark’s page. These ratios cannot be averaged.
MAFF definitions and examples ↗ · Checked 9 October 2026. The arithmetic agrees with the retained workbook; the underlying food and feed accounts have not been independently reconstructed.
How production matches a reference diet
2020 · published studyAbout the dietary benchmark
This is a historical model from Stehl et al. (2025), using 2020 production and population. Its age-adjusted Livewell targets for ages 1+ compare food quantities in grams, not calories or actual consumption. It assumes domestic output can be retained rather than exported.
A below-target group does not by itself establish insufficient food overall. People need nutrients, which different combinations of foods can provide; fruit is not a separate survival requirement. This study does not test those substitutions or all possible adequate diets. FAO: meeting nutrient needs ↗
The study adjusts for feed, seed, non-food uses, food losses and edible portions. It sets missing use inputs to zero and floors negative adjusted production at zero. We retain its reported results as a separate reference; these assumptions are not applied to CropArc’s food-balance data.
Livestock production is not adjusted for the origin of its feed. Imported farming inputs and distribution disruptions are not modelled. Surplus in one group does not cancel a gap in another within this benchmark.
Domestic food relative to each Livewell target. A dietary pattern, not a survival score.
Japan: this 2020 dietary benchmark is separate from MAFF’s fiscal-year calorie measures and does not apply the same imported-feed adjustment.
- Starchy staples60%Below target
- Vegetables62%Below target
- Fruit21%Below target
- Legumes, nuts & seeds4%Below target
- Milk & dairy42%Below target
- Meat170%Target met
- Fish & seafood56%Below target
Daily amounts & alternative diet Grams per person · Livewell and EAT-Lancet
The same domestic food quantities meet 1 of 7 EAT-Lancet reference targets. These are different dietary benchmarks, not confidence bounds. Neither assesses all possible nutritious diets.
| Food group | Domestic food · g | Livewell target · g | Livewell coverage | EAT-Lancet target · g | EAT-Lancet coverage |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Starchy staples | 214.8 | 355.9 | 60% | 282 | 76% |
| Vegetables | 145.5 | 236.5 | 62% | 300 | 49% |
| Fruit | 31.7 | 151.1 | 21% | 200 | 16% |
| Legumes, nuts & seeds | 1.2 | 29.5 | 4% | 125 | under 1% |
| Milk & dairy | 72.1 | 169.9 | 42% | 250 | 29% |
| Meat | 58.8 | 34.7 | 170% | 43 | 137% |
| Fish & seafood | 21.1 | 37.9 | 56% | 28 | 75% |
Population aged 1+ used by the study: 125,452,272. Livewell targets reflect the population’s age mix; the study’s EAT-Lancet targets use fixed reference amounts. Group definitions differ from the nine food-balance groups below. These results are not combined with the 2023 figures or their rankings.
CropArc checks country identity and the published ratio arithmetic. We have not independently reproduced the underlying food model. The authors’ missing-input assumptions remain part of this reference.
Authors’ data and methods ↗ · Article: CC BY 4.0. CropArc redraws the selected numerical results.
Source retrieved 2026-10-11T06:56:17.7502315Z · SHA-256 b472fba66bbcd84b6db2cdff507ae19a44f3efde8cb21a79b64c85141136d750
Stehl et al., Nature Food (2025) ↗ · 2020 food and population data · historical diet benchmark.
Which foods does Japan cover?
FY2025 · approximateReported self-sufficiency by weight, before livestock feed adjustment.
Food groups and the rice exception
These are ten selected groups, not a complete diet. Rice includes MAFF’s domestic-stock adjustment. Pulses include soybeans; milk includes dairy products. Ratios cannot be added or averaged. Native definitions differ from the FAOSTAT studies.
- Rice95%
- Wheat16%
- Potatoes & sweet potatoes68%
- Pulses, including soybeans8%
- Vegetables77%
- Fruit38%
- Meat, excluding whale53%
- Eggs96%
- Milk & dairy products65%
- Fish & shellfish53%
MAFF reported ratios. The line marks 100% of domestic consumption supply.
Five years of context
FY2021–FY2025Annual reported percentages. FY2025 is approximate.
| Measure | FY2021 | FY2022 | FY2023 | FY2024 | FY2025* |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Calorie self-sufficiency | 38% | 38% | 38% | 38% | 37% |
| Domestic calorie production | 47% | 47% | 47% | 47% | 46% |
| Feed self-sufficiency (TDN) | 26% | 26% | 27% | 26% | 24% |
| Self-sufficiency by value | 63% | 58% | 61% | 64% | 66% |
Scroll the table sideways for all five years.
Why the value measure is different
Production-value self-sufficiency weights food by monetary value and deducts imported feed and raw-material costs. It is not a calorie measure, and changes in prices can affect it. The rows use different denominators; do not average them.
The feed behind livestock
FY2025 · approximateReported food-group ratios before and after MAFF’s feed adjustment.
| Food | By weight | Feed-adjusted |
|---|---|---|
| Meat, excluding whale | 53% | 7% |
| Eggs | 96% | 11% |
| Milk & dairy products | 65% | 30% |
An accounting adjustment for feed dependence, not a forecast of production after an import interruption.
Sources & methods
Analysis by CropArc · Editorial review . Source years are shown with each chart.
Source: Japan’s Ministry of Agriculture, Forestry and Fisheries (MAFF), food self-sufficiency statistics, accessed 8 October 2026. Source-reported percentages selected, translated and presented by CropArc; no MAFF endorsement.
How Japan’s measures differ
Fiscal years run from 1 April to 31 March of the following year. FY2025 covers 1 Apr 2025–31 Mar 2026 and is marked approximate by MAFF. Earlier observations are shown as reported in this extract, not assumed final.
Calorie self-sufficiency adjusts livestock for feed self-sufficiency and processed foods for raw-material self-sufficiency. Domestic calorie production retains the raw-material adjustment but does not apply the livestock feed adjustment. The 9 percentage-point difference is an accounting distinction, not a prediction of lost output if imports stop.
Food-group ratios use domestic production divided by domestic consumption supply, by weight. Rice has a specific domestic-stock adjustment; it is not simply the current harvest divided by use. The pulses group includes soybeans; milk includes dairy products. Feed is measured in total digestible nutrients (TDN).
These national ratios differ from the stock-excluded FAOSTAT calculations on the other country studies. They are not directly comparable rankings. We do not recompute balances from the yearbook’s ambiguous zero cells, which can mean unavailable or below the reporting unit.
Exact figuresFY2021–FY2025 · original cell references
FY2025 · approximate
| Measure | Original label | Reported % | Cell |
|---|---|---|---|
| Calorie self-sufficiency | 供給熱量ベースの 総合食料自給率 | 37 | BL40 |
| Domestic calorie production | 供給熱量ベースの 食料国産率 | 46 | BL44 |
| Feed self-sufficiency (TDN) | 飼料自給率 | 24 | BL43 |
| Self-sufficiency by value | 生産額ベースの 総合食料自給率 | 66 | BL41 |
| Rice | 米 | 95 | BL6 |
| Wheat | 小麦 | 16 | BL7 |
| Potatoes & sweet potatoes | いも類 | 68 | BL9 |
| Pulses, including soybeans | 豆類 | 8 | BL12 |
| Vegetables | 野菜 | 77 | BL15 |
| Fruit | 果実 | 38 | BL16 |
| Meat, excluding whale | 肉類(鯨肉を除く) | 53 | BL19 |
| Meat, excluding whale · feed-adjusted | 肉類(鯨肉を除く) | (7) | BL20 |
| Eggs | 鶏卵 | 96 | BL27 |
| Eggs · feed-adjusted | 鶏卵 | (11) | BL28 |
| Milk & dairy products | 牛乳・乳製品 | 65 | BL29 |
| Milk & dairy products · feed-adjusted | 牛乳・乳製品 | (30) | BL30 |
| Fish & shellfish | 魚介類 | 53 | BL31 |
FY2024 · reported
| Measure | Original label | Reported % | Cell |
|---|---|---|---|
| Calorie self-sufficiency | 供給熱量ベースの 総合食料自給率 | 38 | BK40 |
| Domestic calorie production | 供給熱量ベースの 食料国産率 | 47 | BK44 |
| Feed self-sufficiency (TDN) | 飼料自給率 | 26 | BK43 |
| Self-sufficiency by value | 生産額ベースの 総合食料自給率 | 64 | BK41 |
| Rice | 米 | 97 | BK6 |
| Wheat | 小麦 | 16 | BK7 |
| Potatoes & sweet potatoes | いも類 | 71 | BK9 |
| Pulses, including soybeans | 豆類 | 8 | BK12 |
| Vegetables | 野菜 | 78 | BK15 |
| Fruit | 果実 | 36 | BK16 |
| Meat, excluding whale | 肉類(鯨肉を除く) | 53 | BK19 |
| Meat, excluding whale · feed-adjusted | 肉類(鯨肉を除く) | (8) | BK20 |
| Eggs | 鶏卵 | 97 | BK27 |
| Eggs · feed-adjusted | 鶏卵 | (12) | BK28 |
| Milk & dairy products | 牛乳・乳製品 | 63 | BK29 |
| Milk & dairy products · feed-adjusted | 牛乳・乳製品 | (29) | BK30 |
| Fish & shellfish | 魚介類 | 52 | BK31 |
FY2023 · reported
| Measure | Original label | Reported % | Cell |
|---|---|---|---|
| Calorie self-sufficiency | 供給熱量ベースの 総合食料自給率 | 38 | BJ40 |
| Domestic calorie production | 供給熱量ベースの 食料国産率 | 47 | BJ44 |
| Feed self-sufficiency (TDN) | 飼料自給率 | 27 | BJ43 |
| Self-sufficiency by value | 生産額ベースの 総合食料自給率 | 61 | BJ41 |
| Rice | 米 | 99 | BJ6 |
| Wheat | 小麦 | 17 | BJ7 |
| Potatoes & sweet potatoes | いも類 | 73 | BJ9 |
| Pulses, including soybeans | 豆類 | 8 | BJ12 |
| Vegetables | 野菜 | 80 | BJ15 |
| Fruit | 果実 | 38 | BJ16 |
| Meat, excluding whale | 肉類(鯨肉を除く) | 53 | BJ19 |
| Meat, excluding whale · feed-adjusted | 肉類(鯨肉を除く) | (8) | BJ20 |
| Eggs | 鶏卵 | 96 | BJ27 |
| Eggs · feed-adjusted | 鶏卵 | (13) | BJ28 |
| Milk & dairy products | 牛乳・乳製品 | 63 | BJ29 |
| Milk & dairy products · feed-adjusted | 牛乳・乳製品 | (29) | BJ30 |
| Fish & shellfish | 魚介類 | 53 | BJ31 |
FY2022 · reported
| Measure | Original label | Reported % | Cell |
|---|---|---|---|
| Calorie self-sufficiency | 供給熱量ベースの 総合食料自給率 | 38 | BI40 |
| Domestic calorie production | 供給熱量ベースの 食料国産率 | 47 | BI44 |
| Feed self-sufficiency (TDN) | 飼料自給率 | 26 | BI43 |
| Self-sufficiency by value | 生産額ベースの 総合食料自給率 | 58 | BI41 |
| Rice | 米 | 99 | BI6 |
| Wheat | 小麦 | 15 | BI7 |
| Potatoes & sweet potatoes | いも類 | 70 | BI9 |
| Pulses, including soybeans | 豆類 | 7 | BI12 |
| Vegetables | 野菜 | 79 | BI15 |
| Fruit | 果実 | 39 | BI16 |
| Meat, excluding whale | 肉類(鯨肉を除く) | 53 | BI19 |
| Meat, excluding whale · feed-adjusted | 肉類(鯨肉を除く) | (8) | BI20 |
| Eggs | 鶏卵 | 97 | BI27 |
| Eggs · feed-adjusted | 鶏卵 | (13) | BI28 |
| Milk & dairy products | 牛乳・乳製品 | 62 | BI29 |
| Milk & dairy products · feed-adjusted | 牛乳・乳製品 | (27) | BI30 |
| Fish & shellfish | 魚介類 | 54 | BI31 |
FY2021 · reported
| Measure | Original label | Reported % | Cell |
|---|---|---|---|
| Calorie self-sufficiency | 供給熱量ベースの 総合食料自給率 | 38 | BH40 |
| Domestic calorie production | 供給熱量ベースの 食料国産率 | 47 | BH44 |
| Feed self-sufficiency (TDN) | 飼料自給率 | 26 | BH43 |
| Self-sufficiency by value | 生産額ベースの 総合食料自給率 | 63 | BH41 |
| Rice | 米 | 98 | BH6 |
| Wheat | 小麦 | 17 | BH7 |
| Potatoes & sweet potatoes | いも類 | 72 | BH9 |
| Pulses, including soybeans | 豆類 | 8 | BH12 |
| Vegetables | 野菜 | 80 | BH15 |
| Fruit | 果実 | 39 | BH16 |
| Meat, excluding whale | 肉類(鯨肉を除く) | 53 | BH19 |
| Meat, excluding whale · feed-adjusted | 肉類(鯨肉を除く) | (8) | BH20 |
| Eggs | 鶏卵 | 97 | BH27 |
| Eggs · feed-adjusted | 鶏卵 | (13) | BH28 |
| Milk & dairy products | 牛乳・乳製品 | 63 | BH29 |
| Milk & dairy products · feed-adjusted | 牛乳・乳製品 | (27) | BH30 |
| Fish & shellfish | 魚介類 | 58 | BH31 |
Source verification & reuse
The extract preserves native labels, reported percentages, parentheses and cell addresses. All four national measures and ten food groups agree for FY2023 with the inspected English yearbook; feed-adjusted livestock values also agree. No national survival score is calculated.
Current MAFF workbook (XLS) · Sheet1. Retrieved 2026-10-08T20:12:02.211Z.
72192 bytes · SHA-256 023443691ad24a6a0d40f0bd433e054d00b8266d54fb513f234babd74af3bcd0
99th yearbook workbook (XLS) · n053, FY2023 column J. Retrieved 2026-10-08T20:07:51.027Z.
111104 bytes · SHA-256 b6ec75ee8296f0be54237abc2ad066e005daf6e6a5bb5e2b6944fb84317039ff
MAFF method examples (HTML) · Four FY2025 arithmetic checks. Retrieved 2026-10-09T07:38:14.988Z.
47387 bytes · SHA-256 d4287ad9a52c7ab2af2456749ef51b79a8be7bcca683eb84fff20ed8b0082146
Source-reuse review: 9 October 2026. MAFF terms refer to Public Data License 1.0. We inspected the Japanese exceptions appendix and found no applicable exception for these selected statistics. Selection, translation and calculations are CropArc’s work; no MAFF endorsement. This review does not cover provider images, logos or tools.